Trump’s F-35 Nod is Far From a Deal

The news that President Trump will approve the sale of F-35 fighter aircraft to Saudi Arabia may be a boon for the Lockheed Martin, Pratt & Whitney, and hundreds of other suppliers to the largest U.S. defense program – but that endorsement does not ensure the sale will happen. The U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program involves a seven-part procedure, of which Trump’s approval in the case of Saudi Arabia is just the second stage.

Trump’s approach to foreign policy has been beneficial to other manufacturers, namely Boeing and GE Aerospace, and the same logic may be directing the F-35 program in this case. But the FMS program takes a more rigorous approach to global commerce.

With a current average cost of $82.4 million for the F-35A variant the projected sale to Saudi Arabia could add up to almost $4 billion at the present time, and likely more as the jet technology advances.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is a single-engine fighter jet with stealth technology and capabilities for air-to-air, air-to-ground, electronic warfare, and reconnaissance missions. Its three aircraft variants are in service for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, and U.S. Navy, and for the defense forces of 20 other nations. About 1,230 of the aircraft are in service now, with several countries awaiting deliveries of their contracted F-35 jets.

The first step in any sale is that a potential buyer nation must take to join the F-35 program is to make a formal request – which the Gulf kingdom has done. The Saudis reportedly are seeking to acquire 48 of the fighter jets. The Royal Saudi Air Force already is a client of the FMS program, flying more than 300 Boeing F-15s, and transport and aerial refueling jets, in addition to various aircraft from European manufacturers.

President Trump’s endorsement of the sale accomplishes the second step in the FMS process. This involves an executive branch review, in which the request is evaluated by the U.S. Dept. of State and Dept. of Defense, to assess the prospective sale’s effect on U.S. national security and foreign policy goals.

In particular, there reportedly is concern in defense intelligence circles that Saudi Arabia’s ties to the People’s Republic of China may lead to F-35 stealth technology and operational data passing into Chinese possession. For reference, Turkey was once a part of the F-35 program but was removed over concerns surrounding its close cooperation with Russia.

In the State Dept., the major concern over the potential sale is reported to be that F-35s in service to Saudi Arabia would undermine Israel’s “qualitative military edge.” The Qualitative Military Edge (QME) Assessment is the third step in the FMS approval sequence, and required by federal law. Israel is among the nations already included in the F-35 program.

Both of the Defense and State Dept. issues are likely to continue to slow the Congressional approval of the FMS authorization for Saudi Arabia.

The remaining steps in securing a sale to Saudi Arabia are:

• Informal Congressional notification, which involves the State Dept. documenting for Senate and House foreign relations committees the consequences of the prospective sale.
• Formal approval and notification: Once the executive branch has approved the sale officially, the administration will formally notify Congress of its plan to proceed with the sale.
• A Congressional review period follows, during which members can introduced resolutions to block the sale. The length of this period depends on the specific sale and the relevance of laws, e.g., the Arms Export Control Act.
• If the sale survives the congressional review period, the Defense Dept. can finalize a Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) with the purchasing nation.

With an LOA on record, the buyer is invited to negotiate sale terms and production schedules the program lead contractor, Lockheed Martin.