Boeing and Airbus are mostly in agreement in their forecast for commercial aerospace market growth, with the U.S. jet-builder issuing a 20-year outlook almost simultaneously with its primary rival. In fact, Boeing’s 2025 Commercial Market Outlook is somewhat more bullish than the Airbus study, seeing global demand for 43,600 new passenger and cargo aircraft during the 2025-2044 period, 180 jets more than Airbus foresees.
Like Airbus, Boeing sees the commercial aircraft sectoral growth driven by increasing demand.
In detail, that anticipated total of commercial aircraft by 2044 shows carriers’ will continue to rely heavily on regional and single-aisle aircraft to serve growing passenger traffic resulting from expanding middle-class populations, thanks particularly to emerging markets. According to Boeing, by 2044 single-aisle aircraft will make up 72% of the global fleet, up from 66% in 2024.
Passenger traffic will grow at a 4.2% annual rate according to the forecast, more than doubling the current volume and outpacing global economic growth. Boeing expects that markets like China, India, the Middle East, and Central and South America “will play an outsized role in global air traffic growth”.
Boeing’s new aircraft forecast, 2025-2044
|
Regional jets |
1,545 |
|
Single-aisle jets |
33,285 |
|
Widebody aircraft |
7,815 |
|
Freighter aircraft |
955 |
|
Total |
43,600 |
The new aircraft will substantially (about 80%) replace the current global fleet, and nearly double its current size to an estimated 49,600 aircraft by the out year.
In another example of Boeing’s higher expectations it anticipates over 21,000 new aircraft deliveries during the 20-year period, compared to the Airbus prediction of 18,930 new deliveries.
“Throughout the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global airplane fleet more than doubled as the commercial aviation industry navigated significant challenges,” stated Boeing’s Brad McMullen, SVP of commercial sales and marketing. “Resilience will remain a hallmark of this growing industry as we continue to see strong demand for new airplanes with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.”
