Boeing Co. has issued two 20-year regional market forecasts that anticipate an encouraging return to normal commercial aircraft activity following the current and near-term collapse in demand, the result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The airframe builder sees demand for 4,400 new aircraft in the Southeast Asian (excluding China) region, and 2,610 new aircraft in the Latin American/Caribbean region over the forecast period.
Boeing’s 20-year global forecast for the commercial aircraft market sees new-aircraft demand totaling 43,110 commercial jets, with aftermarket services equivalent to $9 trillion required.
Southeast Asian growth is seen driving that region to the fifth-largest commercial aviation market in the world by 2039, with new aircraft requirements reaching $700 billion in total. Boeing sees the regional airplane fleet growing 5.3% annually, and propelling demand for aftermarket commercial services worth $790 billion.
Of the 4,400 new aircraft forecast required in the region, Boeing projects 3,500 will be single-aisle models, notably for low-cost carriers. A total of 760 new wide-body aircraft are forecast, for replacement and expansion of the regional carrier fleets.
“Southeast Asia’s fundamental growth drivers remain robust,” stated Darren Hulst, Boeing v.p. of Commercial Marketing. “With an expanding middle-class and growth in private consumption, the region’s economy has grown by nearly 70% over the last decade, which increases propensity to travel. In addition, governments in the region continue to recognize the travel and tourism sectors as important drivers of economic growth.”
The Latin American/Caribbean regional forecast sees a market value of $365 billion developing over 20 years, of which 90% ($290 billion) will be for single-aisle commercial jets. Boeing noted this reflects expansion of travel across and within the region.
Passenger volumes will grow 5.1% annually over the 20-year period, requiring 2,360 new single-aisle aircraft but just 220 new wide-body jets. A further 20 purpose-built wide-body freighters are seen for the region.
Aftermarket commercial services for the Latin American/Caribbean region will total $480 billion, according to Boeing’s forecast.
“While the aviation industry across Latin America and the Caribbean has been hard hit by the pandemic, fundamental growth drivers in the region remain strong,” stated Ricardo Cavero, v.p. of sales for Latin America and the Caribbean, “South America, in particular, has considerable untapped market potential for air travel expansion driven by economic expansion and a large geographic area best served by air travel.”