The Boeing Co. issued its annual forecasts for aerospace and defense/security markets, continuing to project expansion in demand for commercial aircraft, steady spending on defense programs, and an ongoing need for service programs in all sectors.
Boeing’s 2019 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) identifies growing passenger volumes and increasing airplane retirements to set the global market’s need for new commercial aircraft at 44,040 new jets over 20 years, a level of demand valued at $6.8 trillion. The figure is 3% higher than the comparable outlook from 2018.
Also, the global commercial airplane fleet will also support $9.1 trillion worth of aviation services through 2038, which is a total commercial market opportunity of $16 trillion throught that period, according to Boeing.
"Time and again, commercial aviation has shown itself to be extremely resilient. Notwithstanding some recent moderation in passenger and cargo traffic growth, all indications are pointing to our industry sustaining its unprecedented streak of profitable expansion,” stated Boeing commercial marketing vice president Randy Tinseth. “In fact, we see a market that is broader, deeper, and more balanced than we have seen in the past."
The forecaster indicated that 44% of new airplane deliveries will represent replacement capacity for aging aircraft, but 66% addressing commercial traffic growth. "Together, the new jets support an industry where passenger traffic will grow an average 4.6% and cargo traffic will grow an average 4.2%,” according to the report. “Factoring in the new airplanes and the jets that would remain in service, the global commercial fleet is expected to reach 50,660 airplanes by 2038.”
It is the first time the projected global commercial fleet surpasses 50,000 aircraft.
The largest growth sector for commercial aviation will be single-aisle jets, like Boeing’s 737 MAX, with a projected market demand for 32,420 new airplanes. This $3.8 trillion market is driven largely by the continued strength of low-cost carriers, as well need for replacement jets, and continuing expansion of the Asia-Pacific market.
For wide-body aircraft, Boeing is forecasting global demand for 8,340 new passenger jets over the next two decades, a market worth more than $2.6 trillion. This market segment will be driven to some considerable extend by demand for replacement capacity. Also, the wide-body aircraft market will benefit by a need 1,040 new freighter jets through 2038.
Boeing’s forecast also projects a defense and space market demand worth $2.5 trillion through 2028, as governments modernize military platforms and systems; pursue new technologies and capabilities; and accelerate space (and see) exploration from sea to space. The projected spending – including military aircraft, autonomous systems, satellites, spacecraft, and other products – will be split by U.S. (40%) and other continues.