Airbus has adjusted its 20-year outlook for commercial aircraft demand to reflect “short-term uncertainties,” while maintaining a bullish outlook on growth for the sector. The manufacturer anticipates a total of 43,420 new passenger and cargo aircraft will be delivered during the 2025-2045 period, which is 2.3% more than it forecast (42,430 new aircraft) in its 2024 20-year outlook.
However, that 2.3% increase will be lower year-by-year than the 3.9% rate forecast last year.
The “uncertainties” referred to in the Airbus announcement apparently are the tariffs being proposed that may impede global trade: presumably, this is also the reason Airbus discounts its GDP forecast from 2.6% per year in the previous 20-year outlook, to the from 2.5% per year it projects now.
The market will continue to demand nearly three times more narrow-body/single-aisle aircraft (34,250) than wide-body jets (9,170) through the forecast period.
Some 34,250 will be typically single aisle and 9,170 will be typically widebodies. Around 44% of these new deliveries (18,930) will replace less fuel efficient previous generation models.
Fleet renewal continues to be the factor driving new aircraft orders, with carriers seeking to replace less efficient aircraft with new models that reduce fuel consumption, including increased reliance on sustainable aircraft fuels (SAF.)
The growth drivers that Airbus identifies remain on track with past outlooks, including an increase in business and leisure travel shaped by expanding middle-class populations; and growing GDP rates and an accompanying growth in global commerce.
It’s notable that Airbus is forecasting GDP rates to average 2.5% annually, though in its 2024 outlook it put that figure slightly higher at 2.6%.
