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Boeing Projects Market Growing to $9T

Sept. 14, 2021
The OEM’s 10-year forecast sees a commercial-aircraft demand growing as pandemic-related restrictions ease, as well rising opportunities in supplying cargo aircraft and aerospace services.

Boeing Co. issued an annual forecast of aircraft markets for the next ten years, projecting a growing market it values at $9 trillion based on a rebounding commercial aircraft sector, growing demand for cargo aircraft, and continued demand for aircraft services across the commercial, business, general aviation, and government aircraft sectors.

The $9-trillion estimation improves on the 10-year/$8.5-trillion outlook Boeing offered in its 2020 Boeing Market Outlook, and on the 10-year/$8.7-trillion assessment in 2019 – prior to the pandemic-related contraction of commercial aviation activity.

Boeing’s outlook for the commercial aviation market is premised on an ongoing recovery (as projected in 2020) as health and travel restrictions are eased in various countries, contributing to a return of long-haul travel to pre-pandemic levels, by 2023-24.

"The aerospace industry has made important progress in the recovery, and Boeing's 2021 forecast reflects our confidence in the resilience of the market," stated Boeing Commercial Airplanes president and CEO Stan Deal. "While we remain realistic about ongoing challenges, the past year has shown that passenger traffic rebounds swiftly when the flying public and governments have confidence in health and safety during air travel. Our industry continues to serve an essential role of bringing people together and transporting critical supplies."

Boeing foresees a 10-year (2021-2030) global demand for 19,000 commercial airplanes, valued at $3.2 trillion; and a 20-year (2021-2040) global demand for over 43,500 new airplanes, valued at $7.2 trillion. The 20-year figure shows an increase of about 500 aircraft over the 2020 Commercial Market Outlook.

The commercial aviation sector will see significant growth in demand for freighter aircraft, including new and converted units, due to the expanding role of e-commerce in retail. Boeing project the global air-cargo fleet to be 70% higher in 2040 than it was in 2019.

In the market for aircraft services, Boeing forecasts a total $3.2 trillion market by 2030, of which $1.7 trillion will be filled by commercial, business, and general aviation; $1.5 trillion will be sourced via defense and government services. This covers a wide range of services including digital and analytical offerings; aircraft modifications and conversions; training; and maintenance, parts, and supply chain services.

Boeing forecasts the defense and space sector’s growth will remain consistent with the 2020 forecast, $2.6 trillion through the next decade, including demand for military aircraft, autonomous systems, satellites, spacecraft, and other defense products – with 40% of expenditures expected to originate outside the U.S.

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