After declining for two consecutive years, revenues for industrial geared products are forecast to grow 4.7% in 2014 to $13,218.2 million, according to a new research report prepared by IHS of the market for gearboxes and geared motors. The authors note, however that even this forecast expansion would leave the market about 0.7% below its previous peak level, which reached in 2011.
IHS defined the market for industrial geared products to include gearboxes and geared motors used in stationary applications. As noted, market revenues rose to a record high in 2011 after two years of growth in excess of 15%.
In 2012, the geared products market declined as a result of the European industrial recession as well as from the effects of overproduction in China. Those two factors were largely responsible for geared products market revenues to decline 5.0% worldwide.
Notably, the U.S. geared products market expanded 7.0% in 2012.
The poor performance of the global geared-products market continued in 2013, with revenues declining for a second consecutive year. The rate of decline slowed to just 0.1% last year. Sales were constrained by limited demand in the cement/aggregates and mining sectors, which together accounted for 21% of market revenues in 2013.
The outlook for 2014 is more optimistic, as growth is forecast to accelerate in global machinery production and capital expenditure.
The recovery is projected to occur faster in the discrete sectors, while growth in the process sectors is likely to remain subdued in 2014.
The Asia-Pacific market is the largest regional market for geared products, and is forecast to expand more than other regions in the near term (see chart.)
However, slow growth in the Chinese economy has reduced growth forecasts significantly from the double-digit rates seen in the Asia-Pacific market before 2012. Market revenues in the Asia Pacific region are expected to increase 5.2% in 2014, IHS reported.