Boeing Commercial Airplanes issued a new 20-year forecast for Chinese regional demand, pegging the cumulative market value at nearly $1.1 trillion. With total demand for new aircraft in the region totaling 7,240 new aircraft of various types, the current outlook represents a 6.3% rise over the 2016 forecast.
"China's continuous economic growth, significant investment in infrastructure, growing middle-class and evolving airline business models support this long-term outlook," commented Randy Tinseth, the OEM’s vice president of marketing. "China's fleet size is expected to grow at a pace well above the world average, and almost 20% of global new airplane demand will be from airlines based in China."
Earlier this year Boeing identified China and the Asian region more generally as its most promising market. In its most recent Current Market Outlook report, Boeing raised its 20-year forecast for global new-aircraft demand, predicting a 4.7% rise in orders through 2036. In “real numbers,” the OEM identified demand for 41,030 new jets over the next two decades, which it projects would be worth $6.1 trillion dollars.
In China, narrow-body, single-aisle aircraft like Boeing’s 737 series continue to be the basis for domestic and regional airlines.
Boeing now predicts the market will demand 5,420 new single-aisle airplanes through 2036, or 75% of the total forecast for new deliveries. Full-service airlines and low-cost carriers continue to expand service in China, adding new single-aisle airplanes and expanding new point-to-point services, both personal and business travel increases in China and across the Asian region.
Demand for wide-body aircraft (like Boeing’s 777 and 787 series) is forecast now at 1,670 new jets, a trend driven by airlines shifting their long-distance service to smaller and medium wide-body aircraft. The demand for very large wide-bodies (e.g., the 747 series) will be centered with cargo and air-freight services. "China's outbound travel market continues its rapid growth toward 200 million passengers annually," according to Tinseth. "With new technologies, superior capabilities and advanced efficiency, the 787 and 777X families will play a key role in supporting the growth of China's long-haul market."